Second and Third-order consequences: Psychoscope July 11th, 2019


When you dare to do something very tempting, extravagant, extraordinary and risky, a taboo, something you are not supposed to do, at least try to pause and apply second and third-order thinking: while it may be obvious that immediate result of your action will be extremely satisfactory (it wouldn't be so so tempting otherwise), the second and third-order consequences may not be that great, and thinking about them can make you change your mind.
The point here is not in diverting yourself from daring and taking bold actions, but in understanding consequences of those actions.
If not immediate, but second or third order consequences are undesirable, but something you would accept and be ready to live with see yourself being happy in a long run, it may still be worth taking the action, however if those second or third order consequences are absolutely unacceptable and will make your life miserable, taking action may no longer seem so tempting after thinking about it.
A very simple example is eating a big fat chocolate when you are determined to watch your diet and loose weight. First order consequence is obviously very satisfying: it's your favorite chocolate and it's delicious. Second-order: you broke your commitment, interrupted your diet and now you have to start all over again. Third-order can be even more disappointing: you may loose your faith in yourself, in being able to resist temptation and it may make you loosing the battle for your health.

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